How to read a weather forecast for golf
A standard forecast is built for your commute, not for four hours on a golf course. A day that looks great on the weather app can play badly, and a day that looks gloomy can be fine. Here's how to read the numbers like a golfer.
Use the hourly forecast, not the daily one
The daily summary ("high of 84, 40% chance of storms") squeezes 24 hours into one line. Your round lasts about four hours. A day with a 40% chance of storms might have a near-zero chance in the morning and a high chance after 4:00 p.m. Always look at the hours you'll actually be on the course.
What "30% chance of rain" means
The National Weather Service defines the probability of precipitation (PoP) as the chance that at least 0.01 inch of rain falls at a given point in the forecast area during the forecast period. A 30% chance means about a 3-in-10 chance your spot gets measurable rain in that period.
It does not mean it will rain 30% of the time, or over 30% of the area. And it says nothing about how much rain. A 70% chance of a light shower can be less disruptive to a round than a 30% chance of a heavy thunderstorm. For golf, check both:
- How likely rain is (the percentage), and
- What kind of rain is expected: drizzle, steady rain or thunderstorms, and how much.
Thunder is its own category
A forecast with a chance of rain and a forecast with a chance of thunderstorms are very different for golfers. Rain makes a round wet. Lightning ends it. If thunderstorms are in the forecast during your tee time, plan as if play could be suspended. See lightning safety on the golf course.
Wind: watch the gusts
Forecasts usually give a sustained wind speed and direction ("S 15 mph"), and often a gust value ("gusts to 30"). Sustained wind tells you how much to adjust your club selection. Gusts tell you how unpredictable the day will be. A day with 12 mph wind and 28 mph gusts is often harder than a steady 18 mph. Direction matters too. A north wind in winter usually means colder air. A strong south wind in spring often means moisture is returning ahead of storms. More in how wind affects your golf ball.
Temperature, heat index and wind chill
- Heat index is how hot it feels when humidity is considered. In summer, it's the number to plan around. See the summer heat guide.
- Wind chill is how cold it feels on exposed skin when wind is considered. A 45°F morning with a 15 mph wind feels like the 30s.
- Dew point is the best single measure of how humid it feels. Dew points in the 50s feel comfortable. In the 60s, it starts to feel sticky. Above about 70°F, it feels oppressive. The dew point also hints at frost and fog: when the overnight low is close to the dew point on a clear, calm night, expect dew or frost on the grass, and possibly fog in low spots in the morning.
Clouds can help
A mostly cloudy forecast is not a reason to stay home. In summer, cloud cover can make a round far more comfortable than full sun. Overcast days also cut glare and make it easier to follow the ball. What matters is whether those clouds bring rain or storms during your round.
Sunset
Weather apps rarely put sunset front and center, but it decides how late you can start. For 18 holes, give yourself at least four and a half hours before sunset. See twilight golf and sunset times for DFW.
How forecasts change
Forecasts get more accurate as the day gets closer. For timing showers and storms, a forecast for tomorrow is generally far more reliable than one for next week. If you book a tee time several days out, check again the evening before and the morning of your round, especially in spring storm season.
Let GWI do the math
Golf Weather Intelligence was built to do this for you. It reads the hourly forecast for each tee time, looks at rain, thunder, wind, gusts, temperature, clouds and daylight across the whole round, and turns them into one score. Read how the GWI score works to see what it considers.
Sources
- National Weather Service — What does probability of precipitation mean?
- National Weather Service — Heat index
- National Weather Service — Wind chill
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